Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth
Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth The last three U.S. economic expansions ended with the Federal Reserve hiking to curb wage growth, but not this time. That’s quite bullish. Image: BofA Global Research
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Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003
Delinquency Rate of Student Loans since 2003 The delinquency rate of student loans is higher than credit card delinquency, auto loans and mortgages. The main reason is that the interest rate on student loans can be very high. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds?
Who Owns Different Countries’ Government Bonds? About 70% of the U.S. national debt is owned by domestic government, institutions investors and the Federal Reserve. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread
Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread Probability of US recession in the next 12 months: 31.48% Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Philly Fed Today, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index at 21.8 suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index should remain above 50. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low
The U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Historically Low But the FOMC projection suggests that the unemployment rate cannot improve indefinitely. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
Fed Rate Cut Is Not Necessarily a Sell Signal
Fed Rate Cut Is Not Necessarily a Sell Signal This chart shows the S&P 500 Index performance, 6 and 12 months after an initial Federal Reserve rate cut. You may also like “S&P 500 Performance Around Previous Fed Cuts.” Image: LPL Research
Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low
Recession Indicator – Unemployment Rate (3-Month Average) Relative to Prior 12-Month Low Even if the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator, the “Sahm recession indicator” forecasts a recession when the 3-month moving average national unemployment rate exceeds its minimum over previous 12 months by 0.5 percentage points. Picture source : Claudia Sahm, Board of Governors…
Oil Is Really a Curse for Venezuela
Oil Is Really a Curse for Venezuela The irony is that the proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world! Picture Source: Bloomberg
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today?
Why the Fed Can’t Raise Interest Rates Above Inflation Rate, Today? The Federal Reserve can’t raise the Fed funds rate above the inflation rate because the US productivity growth is too weak.Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend and reduces productivity.This makes it difficult to see the Fed funds rate exceed the…