Earnings – S&P 500 Consensus EPS Revision 2024 EPS estimates reflect a typical non-recessionary trend, indicating a favorable market outlook and the possibility of strong corporate profits. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cyclicals vs. Defensives Performance Investor sentiment often reflects in the performance of cyclicals versus defensives. Expectations of economic growth typically lead to a preference for cyclicals, causing them to outperform defensives. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual Buybacks Goldman Sachs predicts a substantial rise in S&P 500 share buybacks throughout 2024 and 2025. This growth is expected to be fueled by continued strong earnings from technology companies and improved financial conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls The high proportion of S&P 500 companies mentioning AI during earnings calls reflects not only a trend but also a fundamental shift in how businesses are approaching technology and innovation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Central Bank Policy Rate Changes Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast regarding interest rate policies, suggesting significant declines in policy rates across most economies over the next 12 months, driven by easing inflation and slowing economic growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are useful indicators of investor sentiment. As investors expect economic contractions, they often shift towards defensives, resulting in their outperformance compared to cyclicals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stocks – Average Stock Correlation in the S&P 500 The current trend in the S&P 500 indicates a significant rise in stock correlation, suggesting a more homogenous market behavior that could pose risks for investors relying on diversification strategies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Bear Markets and Corrections The current drawdown in the S&P 500 has been notably sharper compared to the average bull market correction, aligning more closely with the characteristics of an average bear market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown While the S&P 500 has experienced significant drawdowns in the past, the drawdown in 2024 has been smaller than the median. Goldman Sachs maintains its S&P 500 index target of 5,600 for year-end 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Indexed Performance Until the summer, the S&P 500 achieved one of its best starts in history, closely following the trajectory of 1995. During that year, the Fed cut interest rates, marking the last soft landing in the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research