U.S. Initial Jobless Claims

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims U.S. initial unemployment claims are rising in states with tech and banks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Economic Forecasts

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank’s baseline forecast depicts a U.S. economy maintaining robust growth, with inflation gradually approaching the Fed’s 2% target and unemployment declining by the end of 2026. Image: Deutsche Bank

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States?

What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown?

Are Fears About an Imminent Recession Overblown? Historically, a recession is coming when the Leading Index for the United States is below 1. Today, it stands at 1.37. “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables…