Market – Current Pricing of Policy, Political and Macro Outcomes Investors are confidently predicting a 100% chance of a Fed rate cut on September 18, a 75% likelihood of Donald Trump winning the U.S. election on November 5, and a 68% probability of a soft landing within the next 12 months. Image: BofA Global Investment…
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets Following a Fed rate cut, U.S. money market funds typically experience outflows 12 months later as investors adjust their portfolios and manage risk in response to changing interest rates and market conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Money Market Assets Under Management Following a Fed rate cut, money market funds typically experience outflows 12 months later as investors adapt portfolios and manage risk exposure in response to shifting interest rates and market conditions. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index tends to lead U.S. CPI inflation by 2 months. Are Fed rate cuts still likely in 2024? Image: Deutsche Bank
Annual Performance of S&P 500 The S&P 500 Index gained 29% in 2019, its best performance since 2013, boosted by economic data, Fed rate cuts, and the US-China phase-one trade deal. Image: Credit Suisse Research
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS
Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…
U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman
What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg