Does Berkshire Hathaway Still Have a Market-Beating Advantage Over the Long Run? We can ask ourselves if Berkshire Hathaway does still have a market-beating advantage over the long run, because Warren Buffett expects a very modest outperformance vs. the market over the next decade. But he can’t guarantee that, of course. Image: Financial Times
Forward EPS YoY % Change vs. S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change Corporate earnings play a key role in shaping market performance. In 2025, the expected U.S. economic slowdown might limit their growth, challenging stock market returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Equity Flows The S&P 500’s correction has not only affected market performance but also altered individual investors’ behavior, with many refraining from “buying the dip” due to increased caution amid economic and market uncertainties. Image: CNBC
Conference Board CEO Confidence CEO optimism is closely tied to equity market performance, with market declines often precipitating a drop in executive confidence. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Returns Based on 21 Points or More Super Bowl Blowouts While investment decisions shouldn’t be based solely on the Super Bowl, it’s fascinating to note that Super Bowl blowouts have often preceded periods of strong U.S. stock market performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
CEO Confidence vs. S&P 500 Annual % Change Strong CEO confidence typically bodes well for U.S. stocks, as there’s a correlation between executive optimism and annual market performance. Image: Real Investment Advice
Predicted and Actual Returns for the S&P 500 Index Wall Street strategists have a long history of inaccurate forecasts, having been overly pessimistic in four out of the past five years, which has led to consistent underestimations of market performance. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation Metrics While valuations in the U.S. equity market are undoubtedly high, they are not infallible predictors of market performance, especially in the short term. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Confidence Composite and S&P 500 While the U.S. stock market has experienced a remarkable rally, consumer confidence has waned since 2019, underscoring a disconnect between financial market performance and broader economic sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Stock Returns Over the Past Presidential Terms Starting on Election Day During President Biden’s tenure, U.S. stocks have surged by 76% starting on election day, reinforcing historical data suggesting that Democratic administrations often correlate with stronger market performance compared to their Republican counterparts. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Seasonality From Election Day in November to the end of the year, the S&P 500 index has historically seen a median return of 4%, reflecting a seasonal pattern where investor optimism and holiday spending boost market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research