S&P 500 Ratio to Stoxx 600 The S&P 500’s performance relative to the Stoxx 600 has hit the upper limit of its long-term channel. While U.S. equities may continue to lead due to strong growth potential, economic shifts could alter this trend. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Price Forecast JPMorgan has shifted to a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks, setting a 2025 year-end S&P 500 target of 6,500, driven by U.S. economic strength, AI sector growth, a robust labor market, and monetary easing by central banks. Image: Bloomberg
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives ex. Commodities and ISM Manufacturing Index U.S. equity sector rotations are pricing in a “no landing” economic scenario, where the U.S. economy avoids both recession and significant slowdown, maintaining steady growth instead. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – Cyclicals Outperformance Following the election, U.S. cyclical stocks have significantly outperformed, reflecting investor optimism about the new administration’s pro-growth policies and economic resilience. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI World Fwd PE and EPS Revisions Downward revisions in global EPS raise concerns, suggesting that the global economic landscape is precarious, prompting central banks to adopt more aggressive strategies to stimulate growth. Image: J.P. Morgan
Percent of S&P 500 Market Cap Reporting Earnings With a significant number of S&P 500 companies set to report their earnings shortly, market participants will be closely monitoring these results for indications of economic health and sector-specific performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Revenues The growth in S&P 500 corporate revenues is aligning with historical averages, demonstrating resilience and stability in the current economic climate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or signs of slowing growth. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Real Prime Rate The 50bps rate cut helps small businesses by lowering borrowing costs. The Fed’s cut aims to stimulate economic activity and support the growth of these essential companies, which play a crucial role in the overall economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy