MSCI World Index vs. OECD Unemployment Rate and U.S. Consumer Confidence Chart suggesting that OECD unemployment troughs and very confident U.S. consumers do not generally bode well for global equities. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Projecting the Bull and Bear Market If a US-China trade deal is reached, this chart suggests a rally to the long-term bullish trend line at 3300. Image: Real Investment Advice
Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Expectations vs. Current Situation and Recessions Is the next recession on its way? Gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Lohman Econometrics
Buybacks – Cumulative Net Buying of U.S. Corporate Equity This chart shows that since 2009, buybacks have been the source of the rally in the U.S. stock market. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
S&P 500 Buybacks Index The S&P 500 Buyback Index is down on a YoY basis. As a reminder, buybacks are the source of the rally in the stock market since 2009. Image: Crescat Capital LLC
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls vs. Overtime Hours and Recessions This chart shows that overtime hours are a leading indicator for where U.S. nonfarm payrolls might be headed, and generally turn negative prior to a recession.
Share Buybacks by Month Excluding 2008, August and November are generally the busiest months for buyback executions in the past decade. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Heightened Correlations to U.S. Treasury Implied Volatility (MOVE) Followed by Higher Yields This chart suggests that balanced portfolios could suffer as U.S. Treasury yields generally rise after heightened correlation. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Performance of S&P 500 Around the First Late-Cycle Rate Cut After the first-rate late-cycle cut, the S&P 500’s performance is generally not exceptional. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research