Stocks – Cyclicals vs. Defensives Cyclicals and defensives are useful indicators of investor sentiment. As investors expect economic contractions, they often shift towards defensives, resulting in their outperformance compared to cyclicals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Google Searches for “Recession” in the United States Google search data can provide some insights into public sentiment and concerns. Currently, searches for “recession” in the U.S. are declining, indicating a reduction in recession-related worries among the general public. Image: Bloomberg
Bank Loan Flows The largest outflow from bank loan funds since March 2020 can be seen as a negative development and reflects negative investor sentiment. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Forward 6-Month Performance vs. VIX Level Very high VIX readings may actually precede periods of strong market performance over the subsequent 6 months, as investor sentiment stabilizes and confidence returns. Image: Strategas Research Partners
Cumulative Flows to Crytocurrency Funds In 2024, unprecedented inflows into cryptocurrency funds signal a shift in sentiment, as both retail and institutional investors increasingly embrace digital assets. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and 3-Month VIX Relative to VIX (VIX3M/VIX) The 3-month VIX relative to the VIX closing at an oversold level below 1 is a potentially significant indicator of market sentiment. This can be interpreted as a sign of capitulation and possibly a contrarian bullish signal. Image: BofA Global Research
Risky vs. Safe Assets Fund Flows Positive fund flows into risky assets, as opposed to safe assets, indicate a broader market sentiment in which investors are willing to accept higher risks for potential gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning Across Sectors Should investors anticipate a rotation in positioning into sectors outside of mega cap growth and tech, in line with increasing sentiment to diversify holdings? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Monthly Returns During an U.S. Election Year The S&P 500 has historically performed well in August during presidential election years, contributing to an overall positive market sentiment and potentially extending the summer rally. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and New 52-Week Highs and New 52-Week Lows The improvement in the percentage of S&P 500 stocks at new 52-week highs can be seen as a confirmation of a cyclical bull market. This indicates positive market sentiment and a potential upward trend for stocks. Image: BofA Global Research