Sentiment on Durable Goods Purchases Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that sentiment on durable goods purchases lead the unemployment rate by 12 months, and that the U.S. economy seems to be moving into the late phase of its business cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research
Federal Budget Deficit Since 1948 The federal budget deficit is unusually large compared to the state of the U.S. economy. Image: Goldman Sachs
GDP-Based Recession Indicator Index This index measures the probability that the U.S. economy was in a recession during the indicated quarter. In Q1 2019, the probability of recession was 2.90%. When this recession indicator exceeds 35% (red line), history tells us that the probability of recession is increasing.
Home Builder Sentiment Leads Consumer Spending Interesting chart suggesting that the NAHB housing market index leads the change in consumer spending. The latest reading for July suggests that the outlook for the U.S. economy is expected to slow. Image: Dr Thomas Kevin Swift
Will Value Ever Outperform Growth? When the U.S. economy is weak, investors prefer growth stocks. But value could outperform again, when the U.S. economy will be stronger. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction If the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate, the S&P 500 Index could fall into a 10% correction in the third quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Image: Bloomberg
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp
Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies Tariff man is back! Keep in mind that trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Trump’s trade war hurts the U.S. economy and stocks.
Jamie Dimon: CEOs optimistic about business outlook Jamie Dimon is Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase and Sylvia Mathews Burwell is the American University’s 15th president. They speak about the state of the U.S. economy with CNBC’s Kayla Tausche. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEeY9k_VHzE