Search Results for: Fed

Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg

Fed Funds Rate and Fed Funds Futures Deutsche Bank’s forecast for the federal funds rate is notably more hawkish compared to many mainstream projections. In light of the election results, the Fed may hold interest rates above 4% throughout 2025. Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Funds vs. 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield (Leading Indicator) The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, sitting below the fed funds rate, indicates that the Fed’s monetary policy is restrictive. Historically, the 2-year yield tends to lead the fed funds rate by approximately 20 weeks. Image: Bloomberg

Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path Morgan Stanley expects more Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025 than markets currently price in, as the impact of tariffs will likely hit the U.S. economy, despite inflationary risks. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

2025 Projected U.S. Federal Spending While the idea of cutting $2 trillion from U.S. federal spending is appealing in theory, the practical challenges and political realities make it a daunting task. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Market-Implied Change in Fed Funds Rate Traders are anticipating a total of 75 bps in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of Fed Rate Cut After the CPI data release, traders now estimate an 82.5% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024. Image: CME GRoup

Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot

Federal Funds Target Rate While the Fed has begun easing monetary policy, the current federal funds rate remains notably above their estimated neutral rate, with plans for further gradual reductions to bring it closer to neutral over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Federal Debt Growth and Gold Price While the increase in U.S. federal debt has traditionally correlated with higher gold prices, multiple other factors significantly influence gold’s market value. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Money Market Fund Assets and Fed Funds Rate The current environment suggests that a substantial amount of capital is poised to flow back into equity markets, driven by expectations of favorable economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research