Median Relative Return vs. S&P 500 During 12 Months Following Start of Fed Cutting Cycle During periods when the Fed cuts interest rates, the healthcare and staples sectors have shown relatively stronger performance compared to the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle The first quarter of an election year often exhibits a sluggish performance for the S&P 500 index, but as the year progresses, the market tends to regain strength, ultimately delivering a solid performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Investors and traders can gain valuable insights from historical trends. In the third year of the presidential cycle, December has historically been a strong month for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Price Returns by Year of Presidential Cycle While the fourth year of the presidential cycle has historically been favorable for the U.S. stock market, it tends to have lower returns compared to the third year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Based on historical data, it is generally observed that the fourth year of a new president’s term typically shows robust performance in U.S. stocks, which can be seen as encouraging for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, U.S. stocks have shown an average increase of 32.3% a year after a midterm year low. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and Last Hike in Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hiking Cycles The last Fed rate hike is not necessarily bearish for U.S. stocks over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns Around the End of Fed Hiking Cycles In recent history, U.S. stocks tend to rally if there is no recession following the end of Fed hiking cycles. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets – 3rd Year of U.S. Election Cycle Only Both bulls and bears may be frustrated this year. Image: Topdown Charts