S&P 500 Performance by President, from Reagan to Trump For President Trump, the stock market is a scorecard. This chart shows the S&P 500 performance across different presidencies, from Reagan to Trump. Image: Deutsche Bank
Does U.S. Productivity Increase Under President Trump? The answer is yes, because businesses have invested. Even if Net Domestic Investment to GDP is in a long-term downtrend, that’s good news for the U.S. economy. Keep in mind that it is a key factor in extending the business cycle. US Productivity has increased, because US companies have invested,…
Trump Tweets About the Fed The last trade escalation was also preceded by a flurry tweets from President Trump attacking the Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank
Trump Tweets: Unvertainty Retreats, But Still Elevated Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. You may also like “How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market?“ Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
What Does Trump’s Economic Plan Look Like? A basic formula explains Trump’s economic policies to “Make America Great Again.” Image: Hayek and Keynes
How Does President Trump’s Twitter Use Impact the US Stock Market? Trump’s tweets exacerbate short-term volatility and can create unpredictable short-term market fluctuations. That’s the reason why Warren Buffett stays focused rightly on the long term. Image: Bloomberg
Are US-China Trade Talks “Going Very Well” As Donald Trump Says? Well, in 2018, China was selling its US Treasury securities. In 2019, it’s just the opposite. Not bad! Why? It is not obvious, but China could use the dollars elsewhere, in Middle East countries for oil supplies, instead of buying US Treasury securities. Image: Ryan Detrick,…
Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP
Odds of Winning U.S. Presidential Election Prediction market odds still favor a Trump re-election victory in the 2024 presidential election, but his lead has narrowed following recent events. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance – MSCI China vs. MSCI EM China’s performance relative to emerging markets has closely correlated with Trump’s implied winning probability in the prediction market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research