S&P 500 – Seasonality During Bull vs. Bear Markets The sell-in-May effect may be more relevant in bear markets. In bull markets, it may be seen as a missed opportunity for potential gains, given the positive momentum and upward trends typically observed in the market. Image: Topdown Charts
Secular Bull Market Analogs and S&P 500 Since the Great Recession, U.S. stocks have behaved like a secular bull market, which is characterized by an extended period of growth and rising prices. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 – Secular Bull and Bear Markets The strong performance of the S&P 500 in 2023 and 2024 could be seen as a clear indication of a more sustained secular bull market, potentially extending until the late 2020s and early 2030s. Image: BofA Global Research Click the Image to Enlarge
AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII investor sentiment bull minus bear spread, which is in the 91th percentile, raises legitimate concerns that the market may be overheating. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Correlation Between AAII Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Returns The AAII bull-bear spread may not necessarily be a reliable predictor of future S&P 500 returns. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
AAII Investor Sentiment: % Bullish – % Bearish U.S. retail investors are feeling less optimistic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 After AAII Bulls > 50% After More Than One Year Below AAII bulls over 50% for the first time in a year is typically viewed as bullish. Image: Carson Investment Research
Structural Bull and Bear Markets Structural bear markets can be very painful for investors, as they can lead to prolonged periods of market decline and economic hardship. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
New Bull Markets Start (20% Off Bear Lows) and What Happened Next for the S&P 500 Historically, positive outcomes have typically occurred over the next 12 months once U.S. stocks gain 20% off bear lows. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Weekly vs. Moving Average Bull/Bear Signals Trading above the rising 40-week moving average can be seen as a bullish signal for the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice
Secular Bull Markets vs. Secular Bear Markets – S&P 500 / Gold Despite occasional market fluctuations and concerns about overvaluation, the S&P 500 is still in a secular bull market. Image: Morgan Stanley Research