S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Considering the substantial cyclical correction in 2022, the current presidential cycle suggests that there is potential for the S&P 500 to perform well in 2024. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 with Start of Rate Cut Cycles and U.S. Recessions Historically, the S&P 500 has tended to post positive returns in the 12 months following the Fed’s first rate cut, unless the U.S. economy enters recession. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Relative Return vs. S&P 500 During 12 Months Following Start of Fed Cutting Cycle During periods when the Fed cuts interest rates, the healthcare and staples sectors have shown relatively stronger performance compared to the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession and Fed Hiking Cycle Based on the lags between rate hikes and previous cycles, the likelihood of a recession in the United States remains a topic of discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
Investor Psychology Cycle When investor psychology is overly negative, it may indicate undervalued market prices, presenting buying opportunities for investors who are able to take a contrarian approach and invest when others are fearful. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average S&P 500 Returns by Election Cycle Year The dynamics and uncertainties of the electoral process often impact market performance in presidential election years, leading to a historical trend of weaker S&P 500 returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Investors and traders can gain valuable insights from historical trends. In the third year of the presidential cycle, December has historically been a strong month for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Price Returns by Year of Presidential Cycle While the fourth year of the presidential cycle has historically been favorable for the U.S. stock market, it tends to have lower returns compared to the third year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cycle – U.S. Regimes The U.S. regime indicator remains in the recovery phase, which suggests that there are positive signs and trends indicating improvement. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Move Before and After the Last Fed Hike in the Cycle Historically, after the last Fed rate hike, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have tended to trend lower on average. Image: Deutsche Bank