Longest Economic Expansion in U.S. History Since the Great Recession, the U.S. economy has grown for 121 consecutive months. This is the longest economic expansion in American history. You may also like “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Economic Expansions Don’t Die of Old Age Today, the current economic cycle is the longest expansion. Image: Oxford Economics
Strength of Economic Expansions The current business cycle is the longest expansion, but it’s also the weakest. Picture Source: ClearBridge Investments
U.S. Expansions and Recessions The coronavirus recession lasted only two months, which is by far the shortest U.S. recession on record. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Federal Deficit and Balance Sheet Expansion Is the U.S. fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 crisis appropriate to ensure continued economic growth? Image: Deutsche Bank
Weaker Wage Growth in the Current Expansion Interesting chart showing that wage growth is much weaker than it was in the late 1990s. Image: Economic Policy Institute
Economic Impact of U.S. Recessions This chart shows that the economic impact of most U.S. recessions is relatively small. The average expansion increased GDP by +24% vs. S&P 500 +117%, and the average recession reduced GDP by less than 2% vs. S&P 500 +3%. The average expansion is 67 months and the average recession is…
MSCI Cyclicals/Defensives Return During anticipated economic expansions, investors lean towards cyclical stocks for their growth potential, while defensive stocks serve as a buffer during economic downturns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Hedge Funds’ Cyclical vs. Defensive Positioning During economic expansion, investors favor cyclicals over defensives. The current low hedge fund exposure to cyclical vs. defensive sectors may present a potential opportunity for contrarian investors. Image: BofA Global Research
Fed Funds vs. Private Sector Wage Growth The last three U.S. economic expansions ended with the Federal Reserve hiking to curb wage growth, but not this time. That’s quite bullish. Image: BofA Global Research