Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The combination of strong earnings growth, a more favorable geopolitical environment, and supportive technical indicators has led to a significant upward revision in equity market growth expectations for 2025. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor confidence and the dollar’s role as a global safe haven. Image: Bloomberg
Spot Gold Gold’s status as a safe-haven asset is under the spotlight, with its price closely tied to geopolitical developments in the Middle East as well as broader macroeconomic trends. Image: Bloomberg
Real S&P 500 Index While geopolitical events can cause significant short-term market disruptions, their long-term impact is usually limited, and markets frequently rebound and continue their upward trajectory. Image: Real Investment Advice
WTI Oil Prices While oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical risks, particularly in regions like the Middle East, the market has so far avoided the kind of sustained shock that would trigger broader inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES1) Liquidity Thinning liquidity in financial markets exacerbates downside risks by increasing the likelihood of abrupt and severe price movements, particularly during economic or geopolitical shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
European Defense Stock Returns vs. U.S. Defense Stock Returns The trend of European defense stocks outperforming U.S. peers is likely to persist in the medium term due to sustained increases in military spending and geopolitical realignments favoring local suppliers. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Gold Consecutives Weekly Gains A perfect storm of factors—including inflation worries, robust central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainties, and favorable monetary policies—has propelled gold prices upward for eight consecutive weeks. Image: The Daily Shot
Gold Prices in 2024 U.S. Dollars The real (inflation-adjusted) price of gold has reached a new all-time high, driven by several factors including U.S. tariff uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and increased demand from global central banks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Central Bank Gold Purchases The freezing of Russia’s central bank assets has had a profound impact on global financial strategies, driving central banks to significantly increase their gold holdings as a safeguard against economic and geopolitical risks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Price Forecast The combination of robust central bank buying, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and escalating geopolitical tensions supports a bullish sentiment among strategists for gold prices reaching $3,000 per ounce by late 2025. Image: Bloomberg