Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning The positioning of mega-cap growth and tech stocks in the 83rd percentile indicates strong interest from market participants, primarily driven by their potential for growth and market leadership. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate Deutsche Bank has increased its year-end 2024 target for the S&P 500 index to 5,750, up from 5,500, driven by continued robust corporate performance and strong investor demand. Image: Deutsche Bank
GDP Growth Revision The U.S. economy demonstrates resilience and promising growth outlook, in contrast to the EU and China, which face slower recoveries and economic challenges. Image: Deutsche Bank
EPS Growth – Political Party and S&P 500 Profits Cycle While election results can impact markets in the short term, the underlying profitability of companies is a stronger driver of stock prices over time. Image: BofA US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Valuation – Relative Forward P/E of Russell 1000 Value vs. Growth Indices The current landscape for value and growth investing reveals a significant and persistent valuation gap, with value stocks trading at lower prices relative to their growth counterparts. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Contributions to U.S. GDP Growth Goldman Sachs predicts a 2.2% Q4/Q4 expansion in U.S. GDP for 2024, surpassing consensus estimates and highlighting the economy’s resilience. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Composite PMI and EPS Growth The Global Composite PMI serves as a leading indicator for EPS growth, with its trends providing insights into future corporate earnings performance. Image: J.P. Morgan
Performance – Large Cap Growth vs. Small Cap Value Large-cap growth stocks are outperforming small-cap value stocks at a level not seen since the dot-com bubble era. Historical patterns and the potential for economic recovery indicate that this trend may change in the long term. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. GDP Growth BofA forecasts a robust U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in Q2 2024, reflecting the bank’s confidence in the resilience of the American economy. Image: BofA Global Research
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend Some investors are becoming concerned as the current earnings estimates deviate significantly from the long-term growth trend, along with the effect of a Fed rate-cutting cycle. Image: Real Investment Advice