S&P 500 Returns – The 4-Year Presidential Cycle The current presidential cycle for the S&P 500 is extended when compared to both the average and first term cycles, highlighting the market’s unique dynamics and complexity. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Considering the substantial cyclical correction in 2022, the current presidential cycle suggests that there is potential for the S&P 500 to perform well in 2024. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle The first quarter of an election year often exhibits a sluggish performance for the S&P 500 index, but as the year progresses, the market tends to regain strength, ultimately delivering a solid performance. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 – Monthly Seasonality for Year 3 of the Presidential Cycle Investors and traders can gain valuable insights from historical trends. In the third year of the presidential cycle, December has historically been a strong month for U.S. stocks. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 First Year of a New President in Pre-Election Years Typically, during pre-election years under a new President, the S&P 500 tends to experience a robust market rally as the election year approaches. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Returns by Year of Presidential Cycle While the fourth year of the presidential cycle has historically been favorable for the U.S. stock market, it tends to have lower returns compared to the third year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Based on historical data, it is generally observed that the fourth year of a new president’s term typically shows robust performance in U.S. stocks, which can be seen as encouraging for investors. Image: Carson Investment Research
Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Historically, U.S. stocks have shown an average increase of 32.3% a year after a midterm year low. Image: Carson Investment Research
How Many Times Each President Increased the Debt Ceiling? The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised 89 times since 1959. Is this time any different? Image: Carson Investment Research
The Presidential Cycle and Average Total Return of the S&P 500 Should investors expect the S&P 500 to rise after midterm elections, despite macro headwinds? Image: Deutsche Bank