Probability of Negative Returns, Based on S&P 500 Total Returns from 1929-Present Extending the investment time horizon allows investors to minimize U.S. equity losses, navigate short-term market fluctuations, and leverage the long-term growth potential of equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Probability of U.S. Recession within a Year Based on the tight spread between the S&P 500 and BBB-rated corporate bonds, the risk of a recession in the United States within one year appears low. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of U.S. Recession The decline in the one-year recession probability based on the S&P 500 and BBB spread is viewed as a positive sign, which could influence market sentiment and investment strategies. Image: J.P. Morgan
12-Month Rolling Money Market In/(Out)Flows vs. NY Fed 12-Month Ahead Yield Curve Implied Recession Probability The probability of a U.S. recession can significantly influence investor behavior, potentially leading to a rotation out of money markets if the likelihood of a recession diminishes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Interest Rates – Probability of Fed Rate Hike The likelihood of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in September has increased. Image: The Daily Shot
Professional Forecasters Probability of Recession U.S. recession fears among professional forecasters remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Beginning Within 12 Months The probability of a U.S. recession beginning within 12 months remains high. Image: J.P. Morgan
Probability of a U.S. Recession The 12-month ahead U.S. recession probability continues to increase. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Credit-Based Recession Probability The U.S. credit recession indicator suggests that a U.S. recession is still less likely through the second quarter of 2023. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Recession Probability Indicator The odds of a recession in the United States are still rising. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Recession Probability Priced In Currently, the S&P 500 implies a 20% probability of a recession in the United States. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy