S&P 500 and Number of Days in the Past 7 Weeks More Than +/- 3% The S&P 500 has moved more than +/- 3% during 22 days in the past 7 weeks. In October 1932 and November 2008, the S&P 500 gained +40% and +27% over the next year. Image: Sentimentrader
S&P 500 and NYSE Down Volume Ratio Four of the past nine days have seen NYSE down volume ratio above 88%. Historically, the S&P 500 rallied every time over the next year, with a median return of 24.3% since 1962. Image: Sentimentrader
University of Michigan Stock Market Increase Probability Next Year and S&P 500 Drawdowns This chart suggests to remain vigilant on the U.S. stock market, when bullish sentiment is so high. Image: Bloomberg
Global Manufacturing PMI and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that improving global sentiment drives U.S. 10-year Treasury yields higher. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
S&P 500 and Fidelity 401(K) Millionaire Accounts The number of 401(k) millionaires hits record high at the end of the third quarter, while the average 401(k) balance is still only $105,200. Image: Sentimentrader
Gold and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Risk sentiment in the market has improved and investors shift away from gold, while U.S. equities have reached new all-time highs. Image: U.S. Global Investors
Survey: US-China Trade Agreements About the “phase one deal”, the latest BofA Merrill Lynch edition of the FX and rates sentiment survey shows that 65% of fund managers see a skinny agreement, delaying some tariff increases. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
S&P 500 Value Index at All-Time High Historically, when the S&P 500 Value Index made a new all-time high for the first time in 200+ days, it went higher 6 months later. Image: Sentimentrader
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Manufacturing Production This chart shows the ISM survey (sentiment) versus the real world (hard data) and suggests it is not yet catastrophic. Image: Swedbank Research
S&P 500 After Official Presidential Impeachment Inquiry Chart showing that two presidential impeachment inquiries had two different results. Image: Sentimentrader
Fed Dovish Pivot – Stimulus Hopes Support Risk Appetite Growth sentiment appears to be stabilizing, due to optimism about fiscal policy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research