Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…
Valuation – S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond This chart suggests that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a trend reversal, as the S&P 500 looks overbought vs. the 10-year Treasury bond. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 Returns, Deconstructed Chart showing that the U.S. stock market is back in its pre-2018 trendline. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Earnings and Net Buybacks Buybacks have been trending lower over the last two quarters. Deutsche Bank expects buybacks to slow to $625bn in 2020. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI ACWI Total Return Index – Rallies and Corrections Interesting chart showing the deviation of the MSCI AC World Total Return Index against its trend line, like the swing of a pendulum. Image: Fidelity Investments
House Prices Around Europe Chart showing house prices around Europe since the Great Financial Crisis. House prices in Norway and Sweden have been on a high rising trend. Image: Jeroen Blokland
ISM Manufacturing PMI and Nonfarm Payroll Growth vs. U.S. Election Outcome Chart showing the relationship between growth trends into U.S. elections and the margin of victory or defeat for incumbent candidates. Historically, the probability of incumbents winning an election increases, as growth trends improve. Image: Bessemer Trust
Secular Bull Market: S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Chart suggesting that the current secular bull trend best fits the 1950-1966 secular bull market. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research
U.S. Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and Consumption Growth Forecast Goldman Sachs economists’ model forecasts solid consumption growth above trend in 2020, despite policy uncertainty. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Employment Rate 55+ The U.S. employment rate of older workers is increasing in a long-term trend. Image: Ernie Tedeschi