Global Breadth – MSCI ACWI and Global Advance-Decline Line of 73 Country Indices The chart suggests a bullish trend for the weekly global index level breadth. Image: BofA Global Research
G4 GDP Forecast Deutsche Bank expects G4 GDP levels to remain well below the pre-crisis trend. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Inflation-Adjusted Investment in U.S. Stock Market This chart puts into perspective the long-term trend of the S&P 500 Total Return adjusted for CPI inflation (real CAGR = 6.7%). Image: Hondo Tomasz
Delinquency Rate on All Loans and Recessions In recent history, the delinquency rate trended upward before the recession began. Today, it is declining and does not suggest a recession is looming.
U.S. and Europe: Value vs. Growth Price to Book Ratio Valuations for growth vs. value are back near the levels that preceded 2000-01, but the trend is still intact for the time being. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Earnings, Dividends and Valuation Chart showing the deviation of the S&P 500 Index against its trend line. The U.S. stock market needs earnings growth to rise this year. Image: Fidelity Investments
Global Equities: Value vs. Growth Price to Book Ratio Chart suggesting that value is extremely cheap vs. growth across regions, but the trend is still intact for the time being. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Consumer Credit The current downtrend in US consumer credit impulse could suggest a scenario of slowing growth this year. Image: Macrobond Financial
China-US Trade as % of Chinese GDP The downtrend in China-US trade will be hard to reverse, even with the “phase one” trade deal. Image: Financial Times
Chicago Fed National Activity Index and Recessions The Chicago Fed National Activity Index fall to -0.35 in December, and stayed at a negative reading. Anything negative is below-average growth. In recent history, anything at or below -0.7 (red line) was equivalent to a recession. “A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding…
Valuation – S&P 500 vs. 10-Year Treasury Bond This chart suggests that there is a 2 in 3 chance of a trend reversal, as the S&P 500 looks overbought vs. the 10-year Treasury bond. Image: BCA Research