Deflation Assets vs. Inflation Assets Is the 40-year bull market in bonds over? Deflation Assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield.Inflation Assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
OECD Leading Indicator and Leading Stimulus Indicator (Oil and Rates) Changes in oil prices and yields could have an impact on the OECD leading indicator during the year 2022. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Equity Allocation Investors allocation to equities is high. But with cash and bonds offering little or no yield, investors are likely to rotate cash into stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation Assets vs. Deflation Assets The leadership remains deflationary, and the laggards remain inflationary. Deflation assets: government bonds, U.S. investment grade, S&P 500, U.S. consumer discretionary, growth and US high yield. Inflation assets: TIPS, EAFE, U.S. banks, value and cash. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Equities and Global Equities ex-U.S. This chart suggests that higher yields could cause great rotation from bonds to stocks, US equities to non-US equities, growth to value, large caps to small caps, tech stocks to bank stocks, credit to commodities,… Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
The Performance of “Deflation Assets” vs. “Inflation Assets” Interesting chart showing the performance of “Deflation Asset” vs. “Inflation Assets” since 1960. “Deflation Assets”: Government Bonds, US Investment Grade, S&P 500, US Consumer Discretionary, Growth and US High Yield “Inflation Assets”: TIPS, EAFE, US Banks, Value and Cash Image: BofA Merrill Lynch
Historical Default Rate and Recession Periods in the U.S. Default rates on high-yield corporate bonds have exceeded 10% over the past three recessions. Image: Altman-Kuehne and NBER
U.S. Recession Risk Indicators An inverted yield curve and gloomy confidence expectations generally do not bode well. Image: Oxford Economics, Macrobond
Watch Warren Buffett’s full interview with CNBC’s Becky Quick In this interview, Warren Buffett speaks about rail road, Berkshire Hathaway, economic slowdown, yield curve, recession, stock vs. bond, airlines & automotive industry, capitalism, inequality, benefits of free trade, IPOs, entertainment industry, Apple, American Express, Wells Fargo, real estate commission, philanthropy with 2% of GDP, odds,…