Cumulative Market Cap Growth vs. Cumulative Executed U.S. Buybacks Through the current cycle, U.S. buybacks have returned about $5.5 trillion to shareholders. Image: J.P. Morgan US Equity Strategy & Global Quantitative Research
Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns Chart suggesting that small caps should outperform large caps over the next 10 years (R² = 0.42). Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Normalized P/E vs. Subsequent Annualized Returns Chart suggesting annual returns of around 5% over the next 10 years (R² = 0.79). Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
S&P 500 2020 Target Models BofAML is bullish. The official S&P 500 2020 estimate is 3,300. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
U.S. Domiciled Funds: Active vs. Passive Record passive inflows suggest passive equity funds will surpass active in the coming years. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Correlation Between Value and Momentum The correlation between value and momentum is near record lows. Below this level, value outperformed momentum over the next 250 days (77% of the time) since 1986. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
S&P 500 Valuation Dispersion on Forward P/E – Value vs. Growth When valuation dispersion was this high or higher, value stocks tended to outperform growth stocks (95% of the time) over the next 12 months. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & US Quant Strategy
Valuation – Value vs. Momentum Stocks Chart suggesting that value stocks are currently very cheap vs. momentum stocks. The relative forward P/E of value vs. momentum is at two standard deviations below the average. Image: BofA Merrill Lynch US Equity & Quant Strategy
QE and Bond Yields Chart suggesting that bond yields tend to move higher after quantitative easing starts. Image: Danske Bank
10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management