U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield and U.S. 10-Year Nominal GDP The long-term trend in U.S. nominal GDP growth is a good indicator of U.S. nominal bond yields. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation and Demographics Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates, maybe for a long time. The chart shows that an aging population affects yields. You may also like “Debt and Demographics.” Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. Bond Market Hedged and Unhedged Investors are frantically searching for yield, knowing that 25% of all bonds in the world trade at negative interest rates. Our world is aging with high levels of debt and low interest rates (maybe for a long time). Image: Fidelity Investments
U.S. – China Competition (Focus Risk) The United States and China will eventually conclude a trade agreement, but tensions between the two countries are structural and won’t go away any time soon. Image: BlackRock Investment Institute
S&P 500 Index – Earnings & Valuation The S&P 500 valuation is high relative to history and the earnings growth estimate has fallen to +3.7% for 2019. You may also like our “Stock Market Valuation.” Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Recovery Since The Financial Crisis The chart shows that the S&P 500 has outperformed its historical recoveries since 2009. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Asset Classes Total Return since the Great Recession The chart shows how asset classes and economic indicators have performed since the Great Recession. The S&P 500 is the big winner. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities and The World: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion Since the 2009 low, the strong performance of the U.S. markets comes from earnings growth (73%) and multiple expansion (27%). You may also like “S&P 500 Return: Earnings Growth vs. Multiple Expansion.” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Secular Roadmaps The chart shows the S&P 500 projection based on average secular bull and the CAPE model. Image: Fidelity Investments
Bull Markets (Total Return) Since the March 2009 low, the S&P 500 is up 397% and remains in a long-term bull market. Image: Fidelity Investments