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U.S. Recessions since 1800 This interesting chart shows that U.S. recessions are becoming rarer over time. The last U.S. recession began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. Image: Fidelity Investments

BBB Debt by Sector in the U.S. By sector in the U.S., financial institutions have the largest amount of ‘BBB’ debt: $744 billion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. You may also like “The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion.”  Image: S&P Global Fixed Income Research

S&P 500 Dividend Yield vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield since 2009 This chart shows the gap between S&P 500 dividend yield and the 10-year Treasury yield since 2009. Keep in mind that investing is not just a competition between stocks and bonds. But for the first time since 2017, the dividend yield on US stocks is equal…

The U.S. Corporate Bond Debt Rated ‘BBB’ Exceeds $3 trillion The U.S. corporate bond debt rated ‘BBB’ exceeds $3 trillion. That’s 53% of investment-grade bonds in the United States. Any drop in the credit ratings could amplify the next recession: many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds.…

Is the U.S. Expansion Waning? Despite strong US GDP growth in April 2019, this chart shows that U.S. growth is not bouncing back in this late business cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Investment Research

Stages of the Business Cycle as of April 30, 2019 Although global growth remains positive, this chart suggests that most major economies are entering the late business cycle phase. Image: Fidelity Investments

Is the US Expansion Fizzling Out? This chart shows that business investment and consumer expenditure decline in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Share of Market Value in Bloomberg Barclays USD IG Since 1990, the amount of BBB-rated bonds has doubled. This is only one step away from junk bonds.  Keep in mind that many investment grade investors own BBB-rated bonds, but they are not allowed to hold junk-rated bonds. So, any drop in the credit ratings could…

World Exports Are Contracting – May 2019 Nowadays, exports of goods and services represent 29% of global GDP and trade tensions are causing a contraction in world exports. Image: First Eagle Investment Management

More than 200 Years of U.S. Interest Rates in One Chart This long term chart covers more than two centuries of US interest rates (yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury). Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Click the Image to Enlarge