10Y-3M Treasury Yield Spread Adjusted for QE and QT Adjusted for quantitative easing (QE) and quantitative tightening (QT), the 10-year minus 3-month yield curve may have inverted in December 2018. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500 Index vs. Global M1 Liquidity Another good correlation between the S&P 500 Index and global M1 liquidity, while the Fed plans to stop quantitative tightening. The money supply M1 is the amount of effective money in the economy. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Market Smell A Recession As Yield Curve Inverts Quant models and yield curve inversion smell of recession rather than mid-cycle Fed eases. Image: J.P. Morgan
“Ken Fisher: Thinking in Ways That Others Do Not, with John Tamny” Great interview of Ken Fisher on: coastal redwoods, dikes and climate change, efficient markets, quantitative easing (QE) vs. inflation, humans as a group are slow to learn, recessions, Fed and interest rates, why philanthropy is bad and immoral, and why inequality is a good…
How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…