St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…
Yield Curve Inversion A yield curve inversion is a necessary condition for a recession, but it is not a sufficient condition. We also need a widening of credit spreads and higher real interest rates. And currently, the long end of the yield curve has a normal upward slope. You may also like “Why the Current Business…
What Will Cause The Next Recession – Robert Shiller On Human Behavior Robert Shiller is a professor at Yale University and Nobel Prize winner in Economics in 2013. What are the biggest risks right now on the next recession? 1) Housing market, 2) Bull stock market, 3) Interest rates and 4) Record expansion. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rUYk2DA8PH8
China GDP Growth Consensus Estimates GDP upgrades are likely to spur interest in China’s markets, encouraging asset allocation towards sectors that align with the country’s economic transformation. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Bond Flows Flows into corporate high-yield bonds and mortgage-backed securities continue to be robust, reflecting strong investor interest amid favorable market conditions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Emerging Market Debt + Equity Flows The substantial inflows into emerging market assets highlight a robust interest from investors. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Active Global Equity Fund Flows and % MSCI ACWI Members Trading Above 200-DMA Flows to active global equity funds correlate strongly with stock price dispersion. Higher dispersion creates more opportunities for active managers, especially in volatile markets, boosting investor interest and inflows. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Stock Splits – Median Relative Performance vs. Sector While stock splits do not inherently change a company’s value, the increased investor interest they generate often leads to short and medium-term outperformance relative to the sector. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Large Cap Flows Investor interest in U.S. large-cap funds has surged in 2024, with inflows to these funds positioned to be the second largest on record. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Materials Flows Fund flows are widely regarded as an indicator of investor behavior and sentiment. Strong weekly inflows in materials suggest optimistic investor interest and confidence. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy