Market Capitalization of Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Chart showing the record level of concentration in the U.S. equity market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Futures Market Liquidity Liquidity in U.S. equity collapsed in early 2018 and remains at low levels. Lack of liquidity tends to lead to violent market moves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Total Return to Gold Ratio According to BofA, the gold to equity ratio is elevated given the earnings uncertainty, but it is far from historical highs. Image: BofA Global Research
Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 20% Declines Since 1980 Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, predicts that the S&P 500 will fall to 2,000 and rally to around 3,000 by the end the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS Forecast to Changes in GDP and the U.S. Dollar This table suggests the sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS forecast to changes in GDP and the U.S. dollar. Image: J.P. Morgan US Equity Strategy & Global Quantitative Research
U.S. Fund Flows Cumulative Since 2018 Fear of a recession has led to a record equity outflows and bond & cash inflows in recent years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index vs. S&P 500 (Price Relative) and U.S. 30-Year Bond Equity markets suggest new lows in bond yields. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 Valuation Metric Is the U.S. equity market overvalued? The S&P 500’s median valuation metric is in the 89th percentile. That’s not cheap by historical standards. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
BofA Sell Side Indicator The BofA’s Sell Side Indicator suggests no euphoria and equity returns of 12% over the next 12 months, putting the S&P 500 at 3,629 by year-end. Image: BofA Global Research US Equity & Quant Strategy