U.S. Headline Inflation and U.S. Core PCE inflation According to Goldman Sachs, U.S. PCE inflation is expected to converge to the 2% target by 2025, potentially leading to a more predictable and stable economic environment for U.S. consumers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Core CPI Inflation Morgan Stanley expects U.S. core CPI inflation to cool off in April to 0.29% month-on-month, which should give the Fed some breathing room in terms of their monetary policy decisions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation For the past three months, U.S. core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation, has consistently exceeded the 2% target. Image: BofA Global Research
Inflation – Potential Paths for U.S. Core CPI If the Fed cuts rates in June, U.S. core CPI is expected to exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target, which could pose challenges for the central bank in maintaining price stability. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Inflation – U.S. Core CPI Goldman Sachs forecasts that U.S. core CPI will be 3.0% in December 2024. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Goldman Sachs still expects U.S. core inflation to continue to decline. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Core U.S. CPI and Real Annualized Total Return for the S&P 500 U.S. core inflation above +0.2% MoM typically does not bode well for S&P 500 real returns. Image: Deutsche Bank
Core PCE Inflation Forecasts Goldman Sachs expects U.S. core PCE inflation to fall faster than expected. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Inflation – Fed Funds vs. U.S. Core CPI Will the Fed pivot in 2023 if core CPI is significantly lower? Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Federal Funds Rate and Core PCE Inflation Will the Fed hike rates above core PCE inflation? Image: Deutsche Bank