Valuation – World Technology 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield and 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield Plus 2.5 Tech stocks are less attractive, as the world tech 12-month forward earnings yield is still below the 10-year Treasury bond yield plus 2.5. Image: BCA Research
MSCI World and World Technology 12-Month Forward Earnings Yield Minus U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Over the last 4 years, the MSCI World tended to decline when the yield gap was close to 2%. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Equity Risk Premium – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted Earnings Yield and 10-Year Treasury Yield The equity risk premium suggests that U.S. equities remain attractive relative to bonds. Image: Alpine Macro
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Yield and 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 forward earnings yield looks attractive vs. the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but equity risk does not disappear. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Gap Between S&P 500 Earnings Yield and U.S. Treasury Yield This chart suggests that the S&P 500 looks attractive relative to bonds, as the spread between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is 368bps. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Real Yield on U.S. Corporate Bond IG & HY vs. Equity Earnings Yield Real yields on U.S. corporate bonds (IG & HY) exceed equity earnings yield Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Earnings Yield Less 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Goldman Sachs expects the yield gap will narrow to 395 bp by the end of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
12-Month Earnings Yield Less Fed Funds Rate The 12-month earnings yield less Fed funds rate is just back to its historical average. Image: KKR Global Macro
S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium: Earnings Yield Minus 10-Year Treasury Yield Chart suggesting that the S&P 500 equity risk premium looks attractive. Image: Truist
S&P 500 Earnings Yield vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The gap between the S&P 500 earnings yield and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is currently relatively high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management