U.S. Jobless Claims Lead the Unemployment Rate This chart suggests that U.S. jobless claims lead the unemployment rate by 7 months. U.S. initial claims for unemployment fall more than expected to 209,000. Image: Oxford Economics
U.S. Jobless Claims and Recessions Before a recession, U.S. initial jobless claims bottomed. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Consumer Confidence Spread and U.S. Jobless Claims Interesting chart showing a good correlation between the consumer confidence spread and jobless claims. As a reminder, the consumer confidence vs. sentiment spread always peaks and then declines before a recession. You may also like “Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index vs. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.” Image: Pictet…
U.S. Labor Market – Initial Claims The jump in U.S. jobless claims is raising fears of a potential recession. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment U.S. new weekly jobless claims fall below 2 million, but remain high. Image: Oxford Economics
What Is the Probability of Being Unemployed in a Given Month in the United States? Weekly initial jobless claims decreased to 202,000. Currently, by dividing the average initial claims for unemployment insurance by the total number of people working, the probability is less than 0.15% of being unemployed in a given month in the United…