Search Results for: small business

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research

Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC​

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high.  And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…

Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession remains high. That’s not the case today, there is no recession coming. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

U.S. Small Bank Loans and U.S. Large Bank Loans U.S. banks play a vital role in supporting economic growth, and despite the challenges posed by rising interest rates, they continue to provide loans to individuals and businesses. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

NFIB Confidence vs. U.S. Small-Cap Stocks There is a good correlation between the annual rate of change in the NFIB Small Business Survey and U.S. small-cap stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 U.S. small business confidence is deteriorating, which does not bode well for U.S. small-caps, but relative valuations remain attractive. Image: BCA Research

Recession – NFIB Sales Expectations Optimism among U.S. small business owners regarding future sales has significantly declined, with many anticipating a drop in revenues over the coming months. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Real Prime Rate The 50bps rate cut helps small businesses by lowering borrowing costs. The Fed’s cut aims to stimulate economic activity and support the growth of these essential companies, which play a crucial role in the overall economy. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Unemployment Rate Shifts in NFIB small business hiring plans commonly serve as an early warning sign for upcoming variations in the U.S. unemployment rate. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond