Search Results for: economy

Will Value Ever Outperform Growth? When the U.S. economy is weak, investors prefer growth stocks. But value could outperform again, when the U.S. economy will be stronger. Image: Ned Davis Research

Warning Signs of the Next Financial Crisis Some vulnerabilities in the global economy pose a risk for investors and could amplify the next financial crisis. Image: International Monetary Fund

Value of U.S. Corporate Bonds by Rating Since the Great Recession, the U.S. corporate bond debt rated ‘BBB’ exceeds $3 trillion. If the U.S. economy goes wrong, this is bad news for investors. Image: The Wall Street Journal

S&P 500 Low Volatility Stocks Are the Best Performing Asset YTD This chart shows that S&P 500 low volatility stocks are the best performing asset year-to-date (outside of GSCI energy). Actually, high-quality stocks are a good way to protect against a weak economy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction If the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate, the S&P 500 Index could fall into a 10% correction in the third quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Image: Bloomberg

Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)

Could European Stocks Outperform U.S. Stocks? This chart shows U.S. vs. European stocks at 70-year highs. Keep in mind that investors think that the euro area economy is less resilient than the U.S. economy in the event of a shock. Currently, the euro area economy is more impacted by the global slowdown than the U.S.…

ISM Manufacturing vs. 10-Year Treasury Yields This chart shows a nice correlation between ISM manufacturing index and 10-year Treasury yields since 2010. This chart can explain why 10-year Treasury yields have fallen. PMI index above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is expanding, and a PMI index below 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing…

Market Reaction to Fed Insurance Cuts vs. Fed Recession Cuts This chart shows the S&P 500 and 10-year Treasury Note response to Fed insurance cuts vs. Fed recession cuts. There is a big difference for equities, but not too much for bonds. Image: Pictet Wealth Management

Cyclical Stocks Responding to Steepening Long-term Yield Curve Keep in mind that the Fed has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. And currently, the 30-year Treasury rate minus 10-year Treasury rate spread has a normal upward slope, like in the mid-1990s when the economy was growing. The chart below shows that the…