University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp
What About the Predictive Power of the Fed? As former Fed policymaker Narayana Kocherlakota said in 2016: “Don’t rely on FOMC forecasts of future fed funds rates.” Why? Because the economy is often shaken by crises and does not evolve as expected. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Germany: GDP Growth Composition Since 2013 In 2019Q1, there is a slight rebound in the German economy but the outlook remains gloomy. Image: Oxford Economics
As China Trade Fears Intensified, Big U.S. Companies Tightened Spending A drop in capital spending in S&P 500 companies is a bad sign for the U.S. economy. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Crude Oil Reserves in Billion Barrels (Gbbl) The proven oil reserves in Venezuela are recognized as the largest in the world, but by some measures, it is the most miserable economy in the world. Image: howmuch.net
How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
Commercial and Industrial Loans Continue to Accelerate in the U.S. That’s a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Indeed, U.S. banks wouldn’t be lending if they were concerned about the economic situation. Past three recessions saw bank loans negative year over year.
Tariffs Are a Hidden Tax on American Consumers and Companies Tariff man is back! Keep in mind that trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Trump’s trade war hurts the U.S. economy and stocks.
U.S. Unemployment Rate at 3.6% in April 2019 This is the lowest level since 1969! Is this a sign of a booming economy? In any case, the U.S. economy does appear to be gaining momentum and that’s good news. See how the U.S. productivity has increased under Trump. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Are We Near a Recession? “The leading index for each state predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s coincident index. In addition to the coincident index, the models include other variables that lead the economy: state-level housing permits (1 to 4 units), state initial unemployment insurance claims, delivery times from the Institute for Supply…