Expected Fed Funds Rate, Negative Interest Rates and 2-Year Treasury Yield Negative U.S. yields are in sight, as Fed funds futures for June 2021 imply an expected negative rate of -0.03%. Image: Fidelity Investments
Aggregate EPS Growth U.S. earnings are outperforming the rest of the world in Q1:2020, because the U.S. was the slowest to lock down its economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Cyclicals/Defensives The outperformance of U.S. cyclicals could suggest that the U.S. economic activity has bottomed. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 vs. AAII Sentiment Survey AAII survey is more bearish than in March, as U.S. individual investors remain pessimistic about the rally. Image: Hondo Tomasz
S&P 500 Real Return and Secular Bull Market Analogs Since the Great Recession, U.S. stocks have behaved like a secular bull market. Image: Fidelity Investments
Earnings Declines During Recessions Historically, earnings tend to decline by a median of 18% during an U.S. recession. Image: LPL Research
M2 Money Supply and S&P 500 vs. Japan M2 and Topix M2 is rising significantly in the U.S., as during the Japanese bubble market of the 1980s. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Performance over 12 Months: S&P 500 vs. FTSE All World and FTSE 100 U.S. equities had their best month since 1987, in the global rebound. Image: Financial Times
Relative Valuation: MSCI Emerging Markets vs. S&P 500 Index Emerging markets stocks have dropped to a record valuation discount relative to U.S. equities. Image: Morgan Stanley
Number of Times S&P 500 Fell 7% and Hit a Circuit Breaker U.S. futures and U.S. stocks have hit multiple level-one circuit breakers this year. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research