The Longest Economic Expansion in American History The U.S. GDP has grown for 121 consecutive months since the Great Recession. This is officially the longest U.S. economic expansion in history. You may also like “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Image: CNBC
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Index Annual Return A split Congress can often lead to gridlock and a slower pace of policy changes. Historically, U.S. stocks have tended to perform well during such circumstances, with an annual average return of 14.5% since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Blended Money Supply U.S. money supply is shrinking rapidly. Historically, U.S. nominal GDP growth has closely tracked money supply growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
Debt, Demographics and Labor Force Growth The slowdown in the labor force in the U.S., China, Europe and Japan, represents 62% of the world’s GDP and 69% of the equity market capitalization. The labor force growth is expected to be -1% by 2055. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Cyclicals Relative to Defensives Chart suggesting that S&P 500 cyclicals could outperform defensives in 2020, based on higher U.S. nominal GDP growth. Image: Stifel
Dollar Index vs. MSCI Emerging Markets Relative Performance Interesting chart showing the correlation of -0.89. Emerging markets could soar if the U.S. dollar falls. You may also like “Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years.” Image: Paolo Cardena
Detecting and Measuring Asset Bubbles Detecting and measuring asset bubbles is not always an easy task. This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. households financial assets to GDP and the U.S. federal debt as percentage of GDP.
How to Get Inflation? Mainly, inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Nominal GDP = M x V = P x T M = quantity of money V = velocity of circulation of money P = level of prices T =…
Where Does Inflation Come From? Mainly inflation comes from excess money supply growth. There is too much money in the system chasing too few goods and services. Over the long term, Nominal GDP = Money Supply x Velocity of Money = Inflation + Real Economic Growth “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” –Milton Friedman. You…