How Have Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Declined Ahead Of Every Recession? Consumer spending drives the US economy. Historically, Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, decline before a recession. That’s not the case today. So, a recession may not be imminent in this late-cycle expansion.
Why Do Eurozone Bond Investors Accept Zero Long-Term Interest Rates? Because they have a deflationary view of the euro area economy. Now, investors are losing so much money just by holding German bonds in real terms (adjusted for inflation). Today, the Germany 10-Year bond yield hits 0% again. Keep in mind that raising interest rates in…
Why Is the Dollar So Strong? There are several reasons for this: – Interest rates differential – Strong American economy and no immediate recession– American geopolitical dominance– Market shadow over Donald Trump’s re-election Image: The Daily Shot
Why the Current Business Cycle Can Continue? Even if we are in a late business cycle, real Fed funds rate is near zero, the Fed remains “patient” at the moment and has little influence on the long end of the yield curve. The 30-Year Treasury Rate minus 10-Year Treasury Rate spread has a normal upward…
St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index Before a coming recession, also watch the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index for forecasting the future. It uses 18 weekly data series to measure financial stress in the market: seven interest rate series, six yield spreads and five other indicators. Each of these variables captures some aspect of financial stress.…
Why Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian is not concerned about a recession Mohamed El-Erian is the chief economic adviser at Allianz. He shares his view about the economy, the Fed and the markets. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QS9DsaqVHlU
Jamie Dimon: CEOs optimistic about business outlook Jamie Dimon is Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase and Sylvia Mathews Burwell is the American University’s 15th president. They speak about the state of the U.S. economy with CNBC’s Kayla Tausche. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEeY9k_VHzE
Ken Fisher on What to Expect in 2019 | Fisher Investments Ken Fisher, founder of Fisher Investments, tells us why he believes 2019 will be a strong year for stocks in a fine global economy. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYdrFfpMuVw
How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio One of the best animated videos about how the economy really works by Ray Dalio. This is an excellent lesson of 30 minutes about economic cycles, productivity, debt… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0