Search Results for: fed rate

U.S. Recessions since 1957 This chart shows that almost every Fed rate cut has been associated with a recession. Image: John P. Hussman

What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? What is the Biggest Risk Right Now for Investors? The risk of a Fed policy error The probability of a Fed rate cut in July 2019 is now 84.6%. Image: Bloomberg

Decomposing the U.S. 10-Year minus 3-Month Treasury Yield Spread since 2013 This great chart shows that the “Global Economic Data” variable has a significant impact on the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread since 2018. An R² of 0.902 means that more than 90 percent of the variance in the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread…

Is Trump Right to Criticize Powell? We don’t think so, because: – Interest rates are still near zero in real terms and below real GDP – The rise in Fed rates has very few visible negative effects in the USA – And at full employment, GDP returns to the level of potential GDP

GWIM T-Bill Flows In light of the Fed’s recent rate cuts, BofA’s private clients are actively selling T-bills and strategically positioning themselves for potential gains in other asset classes. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The 12-month forward implied change in the federal funds rate indicates an 84% probability of a US recession occurring within the next year. Is this time different? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Treasury QT The current context suggests that QT can continue even as the Fed begins to cut interest rates, provided that these cuts do not push the policy rate below what is considered neutral. Image: Deutsche Bank

Total Equity Fund Flows Equity funds experienced robust inflows, highlighting increased investor confidence and a favorable trend in equity investments, particularly in light of the Fed’s rate cut last week. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Weekly U.S. Equity Fund Flows U.S. equity funds have seen substantial inflows amounting to $31.74 billion, reflecting a strong positive sentiment among investors, particularly following the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates last week. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Headline and Core CPI Inflation While the overall U.S. inflation trend is downward, the stronger-than-expected core CPI reading for August could lead the Fed to opt for a more cautious 25 bp rate cut this week, rather than a larger 50 bp reduction. Image: Deutsche Bank