Asset Classes Total Return since the Great Recession The chart shows how asset classes and economic indicators have performed since the Great Recession. The S&P 500 is the big winner. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Conference Board U.S. Leading Index vs. U.S. GDP Growth This chart shows the strong correlation between the Conference Board U.S. Leading Index Year-over-Year and U.S. GDP growth. The U.S. LEI suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP growth in Q2 2019. It is also a good recession indicator. Image: Pictet Wealth Management
Cass Freight Shipments Index vs. U.S. GDP The Cass Freight Shipments Index is a relative good predictive indicator of the U.S. economy. It suggests a weakness in U.S. GDP in Q2 2019. The Cass Freight Index is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. You may also like “ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index.”…
U.S. High-Yield Credit Spreads High-yield credit spreads are still below recession level (red line). A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession“
ANZ Global Lead Index The ANZ Global Lead Index is a leading indicator on global industrial production. The chart shows that growth momentum peaked in 2018. Currently, global growth is actually starting to moderate seriously. Image: ANZ Research
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research
Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason
Can Small Business Predict the Business Cycle? A widening high-yield spread remains a useful indicator for predicting a coming recession in the current interest rate environment. You may also like “A Widening of Credit Spreads Is Very Useful to Predict a Recession.“ Image: Quill Intelligence, LLC
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Second-half Recovery in Growth? Better economic data could extend the business cycle. Currently, G7 & BRIC leading indicators remain encouraging and suggest no imminent recession. Image: Richardson Wealth