S&P 500 Index Performance 3-Months Before A Presidential Election The S&P 500 performance 3-months before the U.S. Presidential election is very accurate in predicting the election winner. You may also like “Unemployment and U.S. Presidential Elections.” Image: Ryan Detrick, LPL Financial LLC
Dollar Index vs. MSCI Emerging Markets Relative Performance Interesting chart showing the correlation of -0.89. Emerging markets could soar if the U.S. dollar falls. You may also like “Twin Deficits (% of GDP) Lead Real Trade Weighted Dollar Index by Two Years.” Image: Paolo Cardena
Total Outlays (Spending) to GDP This chart shows the percentage share of GDP that the U.S. federal government spends. Image: Bianco Research
Detecting and Measuring Asset Bubbles Detecting and measuring asset bubbles is not always an easy task. This chart puts into perspective the current U.S. households financial assets to GDP and the U.S. federal debt as percentage of GDP.
The Yield Curve Leads VIX (Volatility) by Three Years Is more volatility expected ahead? This chart suggests that the CBOE Volatility Index or VIX usually follows the U.S. 10-year vs. 3-month Treasury spread (inverted) with a 3-year lag. You may also like “VIX is in a Transitory State” and “Fed Funds Target Rate and VIX.”…
Industrial Search Trends Looking Optimistic This chart shows the rise in search interest in the U.S.. That’s good news after a fall in 2018, because industrial search trends tend to lead realized growth by a decent margin. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
Earnings Matter, Over the Long Run Over the long run, equities move with earnings. Currently, there is a big gap between U.S. and Europe earnings. As Warren Buffett said: “for 240 years, it’s been a terrible mistake to bet against America.” You may also like “Global Earnings since 2006.” Image: Cullen Roche
S&P 500 Performance Before and After Recessions since 1970 U.S. equities peaked about six months before the recession began. Image: Russell Investments
Exports as a Share of GDP Interesting chart showing exports as a percentage of GDP and putting U.S. tariffs into perspective. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
105 Consecutive Months of Job Growth It is the 105th consecutive month of job growth. The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 3.7%, but is still at historically low levels. Even if there are signs that the U.S. job market is slowing, it is still strong for the time being. Image: Leonard Kiefer