The Longest Economic Expansion in American History The U.S. GDP has grown for 121 consecutive months since the Great Recession. This is officially the longest U.S. economic expansion in history. You may also like “Strength of Economic Expansions.” Image: CNBC
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index is driving economic growth. It is a good indicator of the health of small businesses in the U.S.. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Share Buybacks by Quarter Share buybacks have contracted for the first time since 2017, as trade tensions and economic slowdown worry U.S. firms. Image: The Wall Street Journal
Will Value Ever Outperform Growth? When the U.S. economy is weak, investors prefer growth stocks. But value could outperform again, when the U.S. economy will be stronger. Image: Ned Davis Research
History of the Real Federal Minimum Wage Today, the real federal minimum wage is worth 31% less than in 1968. It is also the longest period without an increase (adjusted for inflation). You may also like “Wage Growth vs. U.S. Home Price Growth.” Image: Economic Policy Institute
Labor Costs Lead Core Inflation by 6 Months Historically, U.S. labor costs have been a good leading indicator of core inflation, because when labor costs rise, companies tend to increase their prices. Image: Legg Mason
Demographics Explain Sovereign 30-Year Yields Accross Emerging Markets Another great chart showing that emerging market demographics explain 30-year sovereign bond yields. An R² of 0.80 is quite high and significant. You may also like “U.S. Population Growth vs. U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond Yield.” Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
“Yield Curve” Google Trends vs. 10Y-3M Yield Spread This interesting chart shows the Google trends interest for the “yield curve” compared to the U.S. 10-year minus 3-month Treasury yield spread. If history helps us predict the future, the next market peak could be in 2021 or later, maybe. Image: Ken Fisher
S&P 500 at Risk of a 10% Correction If the U.S. economy continues to deteriorate, the S&P 500 Index could fall into a 10% correction in the third quarter, according to Morgan Stanley. Image: Bloomberg
Late-cycle Worries Consumers are currently more optimistic today than about the future. That’s worrying because consumer spending contributes 70% of total U.S. production. Image: Deutsche Bank