Most Important Variables Explaining the S&P 500’s YoY Return Today, the two most important variables explaining the S&P 500’s YoY return: FOMC rate change and U.S. hard economic data. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. Cass Freight Index The Cass Freight Index (white bar chart) is a measure of monthly North American freight activity. It suggests that the ISM Manufacturing Index (green line) could go lower if the U.S. economic slowdown persists. Image: Greg S.
China 10-Year Bond Yield Leads US 10-Year Bond Yield This interesting chart shows that China 10-year bond yield tends to lead the U.S. 10-year bond yield by two months. Image: Jeroen Blokland
Probability of US Recession is Rising Mike Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist for Morgan Stanley, said that “Fed could cut as soon as July but it may not halt slowdown/recession.” Image: U.S. Global Investors
Heavy Truck Sales as Recession Indicator Historically, before recessions, heavy truck sales tend to peak (red arrow) and then decline (black arrow). Currently, heavy truck sales have a nice upward slope and show no sign of peaking. So, it suggests that there is no imminent recession on the horizon. You may also like “U.S. Heavy…
Small Business Optimism Roars Back, Rivaling Historic Highs Small Business Optimism Index improved: expectations for sales, business conditions, and expansion rose. That’s good news for the U.S. economy. See why the “Small Businesses Optimism Index” is a good recession indicator. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index – Democrats vs. Republicans This chart shows that Democrats and Republicans have a completely different view of the U.S. economy. Democrats see a recession coming and Republicans see economic growth. Image: John Kemp
Gold Reserves Around the World The U.S. has the world’s largest gold reserves, followed by Germany, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and France. Image: howmuch.net Click the Image to Enlarge
Leading Indicators Show Growth Is Slowing, But Is Still Positive Since 1970, the Leading Economic Index has turned negative year-over-year, on average 14 months before all recessions. U.S. growth is slowing, but the current LEI rose 2.7% year-over-year and suggests there is no imminent recession on the horizon. Image: LPL Research
Should Investors Be Concerned About Rising Oil Prices? Because the U.S. becomes entirely self-sufficient, it helps to contain oil prices in the long-term. Cheap oil is good for global economic growth, business and consumers. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management