Search Results for: fed rate

U.S. Budget Deficit and Current Account The U.S. federal government’s budget deficit is skyrocketing. This is not a cause for panic… yet. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Asset Bubbles and Tight Money Should the Fed raise rates to prick the tech bubble? Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. 10-Year Note Yields: Explaining Rolling Three-Month Changes Chart suggesting that U.S. policy uncertainty and Fed committing to low rates explain U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield. Image: Arbor Research & Trading LLC

A Basket of Inflation Expectations The Fed’s unlimited quantitative easing program lifts inflation expectations, limiting the expansionary effects of negative interest rates. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

U.S. Business Cycle: Actual vs. Potential U.S. Real GDP The mature phase of the U.S. business cycle began 2 years ago. If inflation remains stable and the Fed avoids restrictive monetary policy, then the risk of recession is reduced. Image: NBF Economics and Strategy

Earnings Estimate Progression The consensus growth estimate for Q3 earnings stands at -3.2%, but the earnings recovery seems better than 2016. The Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the U.S. stock market. Image: Fidelity Investments

One of the Best Recession Indicator The Fed is cutting rates and the 10-year rate is inverted to Fed funds. Image: Real Investment Advice

U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession This chart shows the U.S. monetary policy and two recession forecasting models over time (Fed policy rate, Atlanta Fed shadow Fed funds rate, nominal R-Star, Fed funds curve). Image: Fidelity Investments

Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts

S&P 500 Quarterly Operating Earnings Expectations Despite the earnings squeeze, the Fed’s dovish pivot and low interest rates should continue to support the stock market. Image: Bianco Research