The “Small Businesses Optimism Index” Is a Good Recession Indicator This is not the perfect recession indicator, but when the Small Businesses Optimism Index falls below 100 or more likely below 95, then the risk of a recession remains high. And when the Small Businesses Optimism Index hits an all-time high, a recession may occur…
Why Is “Small Businesses Planning to Hire” a Good Recession Indicator? When the percentage of Small Businesses Planning to Hire, falls from a high level to less than 10%, then the risk of a recession remains high. That’s not the case today, there is no recession coming. Image: National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Is Bitcoin on Fire Again? Bitcoin +102% YTD vs. S&P 500 YTD performance of 12.98%. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
Does the Sharing Economy Really Know How to Share? As Michael A. Gayed pointed out, “Amazing how companies that enable the “sharing economy” make no profit, isn’t it?” The question to ask, does the sharing economy really know how to share? Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
30-Year Mortgage Rates vs. 10-Year Treasury Yield There is a very high correlation between the 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year treasury yield 30-year mortgage rates = 1.739 x (10-year treasury yield)² + 0.7755 x (10-year treasury yield) + 0.0227 R² = 0.9787 Image: Calculated Risk
IPOs Tend to Underperform the Market The evidence shows that, despite their higher risk, initial public offerings make poor investments. You may also like “Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments?“
Saying No to the Unimportant Things… “The difference between successful people and really successful people is that really successful people say no to almost everything.” -Warren Buffett Saying no to the unimportant things, but saying yes to the things that really matter. Image: Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
How is the Relationship Between the Fed and the Stock Market? The stock market influences the real economy of goods and services through the wealth effect. And the Fed responds to stock price movements only to the extent justified by their impact on the macro economy. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Hedgeye shows…
Unicorn IPOs, Are They Good Investments? Keep in mind that most IPOs lose money for investors after 5 years. Images: CNBC, Hedgeye Risk Management LLC
SELECT A STOCK MARKET FORECASTING MODEL STOCK MARKET VALUATION STOCK MARKET SHORT-TERM FORECAST STOCK MARKET EQUITY RISK PREMIUM STOCK MARKET EQUITY RISK PREMIUM STOCK MARKET BULL AND BEAR INDICATOR STOCK MARKET FORECASTING MODELS VS. US STOCK MARKET 97% CORRELATION, R² = 0.94 SINCE 1970 RECESSION INDICATORS LEADING INDICATORS