U.S. Monetary Policy and Recession This chart shows the U.S. monetary policy and two recession forecasting models over time (Fed policy rate, Atlanta Fed shadow Fed funds rate, nominal R-Star, Fed funds curve). Image: Fidelity Investments
Time From First 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Inversion And S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. Last three 10Y-2Y curve inversions, further gains average 33%. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
S&P 500 All-Time High and Inverted Yield Curve The S&P 500 tends to rise after an inverted yield curve. It has made new all-time highs 5 of 5 times the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverted. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Wage Growth, Monetary Policy and S&P 500 When the spread between wage growth and the Fed funds rate is wide, it is generally positive for equities. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Active vs. Passive Fund Net Flows Active mutual funds exhibit persistent outflows, while inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs continue to rise. Image: Bloomberg
Active Equity Managers Still Underperform This chart shows the low percentage of active funds that outperformed and how difficult it really is to beat the market over time. You may also like “The Rise of Passive Investing.” Image: PIMCO
Conference Board U.S. LEI and 6-Month S&P 500 Forward Return A Fed rate cut is good for the S&P 500 when the Conference Board U.S. LEI is positive. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
U.S. Yield Curve vs. Recessions The chart shows the 10-year Treasury yield minus Fed funds rate yield curve and recessions. Historically, a flat or inverted yield curve is associated with slow economic growth or recessions. The longer the yield curve stays inverted, the better it predicts recession. A Fed rate cut similar to 1995 could…
The Rise of Passive Investing Net inflows into index-tracking U.S. mutual funds and ETFs rose by around 50% in the second quarter from a year earlier. Image: The Wall Street Journal
S&P 500 and Hedge Fund Exposure While the S&P 500 is at all-time high, hedge funds increase their exposure to equities (last = 0.52). Image: Sentimentrader