U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. 10-Year Bund Yield It is becoming more common for German bund yields to be below U.S. yields, which can be attributed to the difference in economic conditions and fiscal policies between Germany and the United States. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Rate vs. U.S. Financial Conditions Index The decoupling of U.S. financial conditions from U.S. real rates persists. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Effective Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 Index Return vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Return Is 2024 poised to be the year for bonds, given that the median relative performance spread between stocks and bonds in previous Fed cutting cycles has been 25%? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Market Pricing of Fed Cuts vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield When the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, it often leads to lower real yields, as investors adjust their expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. yields are likely to be lower in 2024, which could potentially support a cyclical bull bond market. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Valuation – MSCI U.S. Forward 12-Month Price/Earnings Ratio vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Real Yield While rising real yields have historically been associated with a decrease in stock market performance, the U.S. equity market has showcased its resilience by delivering impressive returns this year. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
S&P 500, U.S. 10-Year Yield and U.S. Dollar Index Peaks in the U.S. dollar and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are seen as essential to catalyze a year-end rally in the S&P 500. Image: BofA Global Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Less CPI Given investors’ historic tendency to demand a 200 basis point premium over inflation rates, could rates rise further? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield – Monthly Chart The gradual approach of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield towards the secular target carries significant implications for various sectors of the economy and financial markets. Image: BofA Global Research
Correlation Between the S&P 500 and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yields The easing of inflation is reshaping the relationship between U.S. equities and yields, likely strengthening their correlation moving forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which had experienced significant volatility and deviation from its pre-2008 trading range in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, has now reverted back to its previous levels. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond