MSCI USA Cyclical Sectors-Defensive Sectors Spread USD Index vs. 2-Year/30-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Curve This chart suggests that cyclical outperformance of defensives tends to be correlated with the shape of the 2-year/30-year U.S. Treasury yield curve. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Expected Fed Funds Rate, Negative Interest Rates and 2-Year Treasury Yield Negative U.S. yields are in sight, as Fed funds futures for June 2021 imply an expected negative rate of -0.03%. Image: Fidelity Investments
S&P 500 Forward 2-Year P/E Ratio The U.S. stock market is pricing in a V-shaped economic recovery. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Caps: Russell 2000 Last 12 Month Performance Grouped by Stocks > 10-Years Old and < 2-Years Old Chart suggesting more alpha among “newer” Russell 2000 small cap stocks over the last 12 months. Image: Strategas
U.S./German 2-Year Yield Spread vs. U.S./Euro Foreign Exchange Rate This chart shows the Euro vs. US Dollar (EUR/USD) and how a wider U.S./German 2-year yield spread corresponds to a stronger US dollar. R² = 0.62 since 2005.
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Spread vs. Fed Funds Target Rate Interesting chart showing the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve steepness versus. the Fed funds target rate (inverted). Image: Credit Suisse
Small Bank Lending and 2-Year/Fed Funds Spread This chart shows the correlation between small bank lending and falling rates, and the negative effect of an inverted yield curve on small bank lending. Image: TS Lombard
U.S. 10-Year/2-Year Yield Curve and Recession After the first Fed rate cut, a steepening of the U.S. 2-Year/10-Year spread could suggest a recession is coming. Image: UBS
Conference Board U.S. LEI and U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year Spread Is a rate cut justified in July? Just take a look at the Conference Board Leading Economic Index and the U.S. Treasury 10-Year/2-Year spread. Image: Strategas
Divergence Between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury Yield and the U.S. Dollar Trump wants a weaker US dollar, but could the dollar weaken in the coming months? Image: Legg Mason
U.S. Long Term Government Bonds (+15y) Rolling 10-Year Annualized Returns Long-dated U.S. Treasury 10-year returns are currently nearing 62-year lows, raising questions about the potential for better returns in the future. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy