Valuation – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates of 2020 EPS Growth This chart suggests that equity market valuations are too high, as current stock prices do not reflect the scale of earnings declines in a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 YoY EPS Growth Goldman Sachs now forecasts S&P 500 EPS of $110 this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth This chart shows the link between economic growth and S&P 500 EPS growth, and highlights the sensitivity of S&P 500 EPS to macro variables. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth and S&P 500 Forward P/E Goldman’s baseline scenario suggests S&P 500 EPS growth of 0% in 2020 and forward P/E multiple equals 19.4x at year-end 2020. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual S&P 500 EPS Growth Goldman Sachs expects no earnings growth this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Wicksell Spread and S&P 500 12-Month EPS Growth (Leading Indicator) This chart suggests that the Wicksell spread tends to lead the S&P 500 12-Month EPS growth by 3 months. Image: Pictet Asset Management
Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and Google and S&P 500 EPS Growth FAAMG supported S&P 500 EPS growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trailing 12 Month EPS Growth: S&P 500 vs. MSCI AC World ex U.S. Chart suggesting that the “fundamental” advantage of U.S. stocks is diminishing. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
U.S. Survey Data and EPS Growth BofA’s model suggests 11.4% U.S. EPS growth by the end of Q2 2020. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 EPS Growth vs. Price Performance Chart showing the poor relationship between earnings growth and market performance, even in the long term. Image: BMO Capital Markets Investment Strategy Group
Median S&P 500 EPS Growth The median S&P 500 stock is expected to grow earnings per share by 8% this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research