Distribution of Subsequent 30 Day S&P 500 Price Changes by VIX Regime VIX above 30 tends to be bullish for U.S. stocks, but tail risk increases. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Scenario Analysis Around Baseline S&P 500 Price Target Goldman Sachs’s baseline forecast for the S&P 500 at the end of 2022 is 4,900. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Years Following S&P 500 Price Gain > 27% Since WWII, when the S&P 500 is up more than 27% at the end of the year, the following year tends to be bullish for U.S. stocks. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Stock Market Breadth – NYSE Stocks Above 200-DMA and S&P 500 Price Relative to 200-DMA Stock market breadth has worsened significantly over the last months. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Earnings Revisions Breadth and S&P 500 Price % Above/Below 200-Day Moving Average Earnings revisions have likely peaked. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Commodities – S&P 500 Price Index/CRY(B) Index Are commodities a bargain relative to U.S. equities? Historically, commodities tend to underperform inflation over the long run and stocks tend to outperform. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Price, Sales, EPS and GDP S&P 500 profits have exceeded their pre-pandemic level. 4Q 2020 EPS came in 2% above 4Q 2019. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Return and S&P 500 as Reported EPS Equity markets tend to follow the EPS trend. Image: Nordea and Macrobond
Sensitivity of S&P 500 Price to Real Rates and Breakeven Inflation Goldman Sachs expects breakeven inflation will continue to rise. The year-end S&P 500 price targets of 4300 this year and 4600 in 2022 remain unchanged. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target by End of 2020 and Next 12 Months Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 price target to 3,700 by the end of 2020 and 4,300 by the end of 2021. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
SPACs Global Proceeds and S&P 500 Price SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies) are booming and have coincided with the equity market near highs, according to Citi. Image: CNBC