Search Results for: trade war

Earnings Estimates: Emerging Markets Emerging markets are the hardest hit by the trade war. Image: Fidelity Investments

NFIB Survey Leads U.S. Employment The U.S. economy is not unaffected by the trade war and global slowdown. This chart suggests that U.S. employment is slowing down. The chart also suggests that the NFIB survey leads U.S. employment by 6 months. Image: Rothschild & Co Asset Management Europe

ISM Manufacturing Index, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP U.S. services sector suggests that the U.S. economy is weathering the trade war. Image: Institute of International Finance

U.S. Nonfarm Employment and NFIB Survey If the trade war continues, it will have serious negative repercussions on the American economy. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

U.S. Stocks with High China Sales and China Stocks with High U.S. Sales US-China trade war affects the relative performance of U.S. and China stocks vs. local market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Stocks with High China Sales vs. S&P 500 US-China trade war affects the relative performance of U.S. stocks with high China sales vs. the S&P 500 index. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

CEO Confidence & Business Confidence Deutsche Bank points out that something happened to CEO confidence and business confidence when the trade war escalated in 2018H2. Image: Deutsche Bank Global Research

Short-term Pessimism Almost as Extreme as December The trade war and tariffs scared the stock market. Short-term pessimism is generally a good contrarian indicator, especially at a time when the media seem to be worried about the market. Image: Ned Davis Research

Societe Generale’s Chart of Swan Risks This chart shows the downside and upside risks to the growth outlook. Biggest risks (black swan): protectionism/trade wars (25%), and European policy uncertainty (20%) Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research

Is The U.S. Economy Slowing Down? The chart below shows that the U.S. economy is slowing down. The U.S.-China trade war and slower global growth are not helping. But as long as there is no recession, slowing down is fine.

Average Consumer Price Increase After US Import Tariffs by 25% This chart shows the average consumer price increase in percentage points for US consumers/firms after an increase in US import tariffs by 25 percentage points. Trade war costs to consumers and companies. Tariffs are a hidden tax on American consumers and US firms. Image: Ifo…